On the Death of the VRA

I don't know what the final outcome of the gutting of the Votings Right Act will be.

The next couple election cycles could be so favorable to Democrats that it does little to stop their momentum. As Southern states rush headlong into destroying their minority districts they may very well be setting up dummymanders that are easier for Democrats to win. No one is accusing anyone in the Red States of acting with restraint or intelligence, just a blind zeal to remove as many minorities from power as possible.

What I am fairly confident of is we've seen the high-water mark of minority representation in Congress. As imperfect as it was at dividing political power, the VRA gave minorities their most political representation in this country's history. Whatever unfolds next, and whether that ultimately helps the Republicans or Democrats, there will be fewer minorities in Congress in the near and midterm once this ruling truly settles in.

There is hope that the Democrats once back in power will restore all that's taken. I'm more sanguine on this.

A right once lost is seldom restored intact.

Take the best case scenario, a Democratic trifecta with hearty majorities in both Houses of Congress. Something not seen since 2008-2010. This Democratic trifecta would include members from the South who won with districts redrawn after the VRA was overturned. Would they revert back to the status quo? I doubt it.

I doubt even a Democratic Party emboldened by massive majorities in both houses could pass such legislation.

That besides the United States is a very different country than it was in the 1960s. African Americans aren't the second largest ethnic group anymore. Any new VRA equivalent would as a political necessity need to weigh the concerns of the Latino and Asian communities while placating Whites. Likewise religious minorities could argue that they suffer persecution via how districts are drawn. In order to get the votes necessary to get all these groups on board their concerns will need to be addressed and they would need to see benefits beyond what the original VRA provided.

Any future VRA replacement could in turn be more beneficial to more groups than the Great Society version, more nimble to match the problems of our day, but it would be different. It would help a different mix of people and implement its solutions in different ways.

Ultimately demographics may be destiny.

The next generations of Americans are the most racially diverse in this country's history. They are dispersed through the country in ways that make it harder to box them into minority-majority districts the way African Americans are hemmed-in in the South. They are not as beholden to one party as prior generations. They will eventually run for office and many will win.

In the short and near term, until such a future there will be pain. There will be voices shut out of politics, and whole communities stripped of representation.

There will be pain, and for the architects of the VRAs demise that may better than locking in Republican majorities.